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The debate will heat up soon Options
Administrator
Posted: Saturday, January 05, 2008 6:23:23 PM

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Joined: 12/12/2007
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When the start of the new year, and both the Bellingham City Council and the Whatcom County Council now firmly in place with the newly elected members, we at Eye on Whatcom expect to see the UGA debate begin to heat up significantly. The County Council is very soon going to be pressed into some sort of decision regarding the size of Bellingham’s UGA. We would be very surprised if we don't see this decision within the next six to eight weeks.

The point of contention, of course, is the size of the UGA, where the city wants it significantly increased, and the county wants to keep it as small as they can. Apart from the two councils involved, the debate will rage between activist groups and various special interests, and the rhetoric will fly!

Please bear in mind the rules for posting, but give us your thoughts on the pending UGA debate.
Tugboat
Posted: Sunday, January 13, 2008 3:44:07 PM
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Joined: 1/13/2008
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Location: Bellingham
Well the debate will hit the fan on Monday, Council will be looking a a resolution from Mayor Pike;


ftp://ftp.cob.org/council/packets/2008/01_jan/14/packets/14jan2008_AB17756.pdf

I think it's worth noting that this resolution has Legal and the Mayors initials on it.....looks like no Planning Staff were ordered to sign off on this nonsense.

Hear Gene Knutson and Doug Starcher on KGMI Friday.

ADMIN NOTE: Edited Tugboat's original link to provide direct links to the program by segment.
Segment One
Segment Two
Segment Three
Segment Four












DJGray
Posted: Sunday, January 13, 2008 3:56:14 PM

Rank: Administration
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Joined: 1/11/2008
Posts: 256
Location: Bellingham, WA
Tugboat wrote:
Hear Gene Knutson and Doug Starcher on KGMI Friday.

http://www.kgmi.com/news.asp?newsid=10025&page=hearitnow



Hey Tug,

Yeah, I listened to that live, and it was interesting. I was working at the same time and thought it would be worthwhile to listen again once it was posted on the KGMI site.

It sounds very much like the City and County both have their heels dug in and are not wanting to budge on this. I was disturbed by the amount of work, study and money that went into this thus far which essentially is now null and void. I was further disturbed to hear that attendees from the county were "instructed" to not cooperate and agree to nothing. Now, I may be misquoting that, but that's the idea that Gene and Doug were representing during the interview.

That sort of behavior is completely non-productive. If you and I are in a discussion, I need to always be open to persuasion, at the very least. Otherwise, that is the very definition of "closed mindedness." I can vehemently disagree with you, but I must always be open to persuasion. The key is that you must persuade me, and for that to happen, your arguments must be substantive.

Am I missing something in that?

- djg

Mark Twain wrote:

A lie can travel halfway around the world while the truth is putting its shoes on.

  • Mark Twain


  • Baron Miller wrote:

    Grace ruins the idea that you are fully in charge.

  • Baron Miller



  • Tugboat
    Posted: Sunday, January 13, 2008 4:46:00 PM
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    The Bellingham Comp plan has been appealed twice and upheld.

    The second finding noted that no further appeals would be allowed. It is un-appeal able, what are the circumstances that we would want to change our plan to conform to a plan that the county has yet to deliver?

    The County Staff were sent to meet with City Staff and told not to negotiate.

    That is on tape from the County Council planning committee.

    Read the resolution being sent to the City Council.

    This is the definition of insanity.
    Flat Tire
    Posted: Sunday, January 13, 2008 5:31:37 PM

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    Tugboat wrote:
    Read the resolution being sent to the City Council.


    I'd like to read that. Can you post a link?
    Tugboat
    Posted: Sunday, January 13, 2008 7:00:28 PM
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    DJGray
    Posted: Sunday, January 13, 2008 10:26:14 PM

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    Joined: 1/11/2008
    Posts: 256
    Location: Bellingham, WA


    I'm tired, and ill, so I'm probably not reading as clearly as I ought, but in reading that, particularly in the "be it resolved" section, it sounds very much like the city is caving in. But like I said, I'm not really on top of my game right now.

    What's concerns me about this is the possibility that the County by pushing back the way they are, is very likely going to create the sprawl they hope to prevent. When the city runs out of room, people will move to the outer communities (sprawl) and will commute to Bellingham (traffic congestion).

    Neighborhoods who are updating their plans are not going to just roll over for the bulldozer to wipe out what is there so we can build high rises, and I would not expect them to do so. There are limited options. We grow up, grow out, or sprawl into neighboring communities and watch congestion on the arterials which is already a mess.



    Mark Twain wrote:

    A lie can travel halfway around the world while the truth is putting its shoes on.

  • Mark Twain


  • Baron Miller wrote:

    Grace ruins the idea that you are fully in charge.

  • Baron Miller



  • DJGray
    Posted: Tuesday, January 15, 2008 9:59:44 AM

    Rank: Administration
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    Joined: 1/11/2008
    Posts: 256
    Location: Bellingham, WA
    I received a very interesting email last night from an individual which gives a little different viewpoint on this. I have not been given permission to post it, and am hopeful that the individual who sent it to me will do so. Essentially, what this email tells me is that Gene and Doug were not really giving the full picture when they were interviewed on KGMI last week.

    There is almost always more to the story...

    Maybe we'll get that here by the end of the day.



    Mark Twain wrote:

    A lie can travel halfway around the world while the truth is putting its shoes on.

  • Mark Twain


  • Baron Miller wrote:

    Grace ruins the idea that you are fully in charge.

  • Baron Miller



  • Tugboat
    Posted: Tuesday, January 15, 2008 6:59:10 PM
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    Groups: Member

    Joined: 1/13/2008
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    OOOOOOOOOOOOOH a secret, anon, "real scoop".

    I cant wait!
    DJGray
    Posted: Wednesday, January 16, 2008 11:38:21 AM

    Rank: Administration
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    Joined: 1/11/2008
    Posts: 256
    Location: Bellingham, WA
    Tugboat wrote:
    OOOOOOOOOOOOOH a secret, anon, "real scoop".

    I cant wait!


    Well, it's not THAT big of a scoop. Wink

    It's just that there is always another side, or another perspective.

    The post is coming soon. Here's the deal... City Councilman Stan Snapp emailed me, having read this thread, and then touching base with County Councilman Carl Wiemer. Carl had some interesting counterpoints to make, and it did balance the discussion somewhat, at least in my mind.

    Let's let Stan post his thoughts and then we can carry on the discussion from there.



    Mark Twain wrote:

    A lie can travel halfway around the world while the truth is putting its shoes on.

  • Mark Twain


  • Baron Miller wrote:

    Grace ruins the idea that you are fully in charge.

  • Baron Miller



  • Stan Snapp
    Posted: Wednesday, January 16, 2008 3:27:11 PM

    Rank: New Member
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    Joined: 1/9/2008
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    Location: Bellingham
    Greetings All,
    First time post here so bear with me. I do have Carl Weimer's permission to post with one population clarification. I asked Carl to comment on the KGMI rant by Gene Knutson and Doug Starcher. As I recall their main pitch was that the City did five years worth of work on the UGA issue including a population increase projection study and how dare the County come to a different conclusion without doing any study or research of their own. I put that question to Carl figuring, why not go to the horses mouth, so to speak. Here is his response verbatim:

    Stan,
    The charge that the City did the analysis and the County didn't is true. The County looked at the analysis that the City did, could find no flaws with it, so instead of wasting taxpayer money to do another analysis that would probably come out with basically the same numbers we used your analysis.
    Hopefully we don't get to the point that every time either of us does any type of analysis (traffic counts, water testing, ambulance runs, etc) the other then does the same analysis because we don't trust each other.

    The difference was not in the analysis the City did, (we accepted your numbers as accurate), the difference was in the assumptions (the wiggle
    room) that were used by your planners to make the numbers come to various conclusions. The ones that you have probably heard about are the assumptions that lead to such a big safety factor, the assumption that the current UGAs would develop at the minimum densities possible, etc. For example if you change the assumption about current UGA build out from the minimum density numbers the City used to a medium number that I proposed, the difference between our proposals nearly disappears. Both numbers, minimum and medium, are from the City's analysis - I just think the medium one is more realistic, and what we should be shooting for in our precious UGAs.

    The one other thing that kept striking me listening to Gene and Doug this morning was how they kept saying the County was trying to force 30,000+ people into the neighborhoods. If my memory serves me correctly the City's proposal put 26,000 in existing neighborhoods, while the County's put 29,000. So really the difference between what the County proposed for existing neighborhoods compared to what the City proposed is only 3000, not 30,000. Those are very round numbers from memory, but they at least show the general scale. Carl

    Okay, that's his response. Stan
    Tugboat
    Posted: Wednesday, January 16, 2008 3:29:10 PM
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    Hi Stan,
    I see your logged in and look forward to your post. In a PM I told Damon that I'm sad we don't have a chance to TALK, seems were always testifyin or speechifyin but not much of a chance to just talk.

    Doug
    Tugboat
    Posted: Wednesday, January 16, 2008 3:58:03 PM
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    Joined: 1/13/2008
    Posts: 6
    Location: Bellingham
    Thanks for posting what Carl said, now what do you think Stan? The issue of the safety factor is the big sticking point. I understand that. There are a number of other concerns.

    1. Our plan is un appealable at WWGMHB.

    2. If we "re open" our plan we have to use current information on occupancy which according to census numbers seems to be plummeting.

    3. When the county finished their land supply (about the same time as we were doing the population projection) Sylvia seemed to be surprised that ALL the future growth could be taken in un incorporated Whatcom County.

    4. Fine they used our numbers, good thinking. Now show us the analsys, the one that goes beyond OK "0" or "5" or "18" just pick a number part of the exercise.

    Not everyone wants to live in the city nor in the country,fine. Lets just not pretend that people driving to Bellingham for jobs and services from their 1 or 5 acre county homes are somehow not sprawl but planning for growth next to the city is!

    I would love to have a chance to have a real roundtable discussion of these and the many other factors. Sadly I dont think there will be time or the will to get the many interested folks together to try. And our "system" doesnt really have that as an option.

    D
    alphabetsoup
    Posted: Friday, January 18, 2008 5:15:42 PM
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    Joined: 1/18/2008
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    Location: Lettered Streets
    Stan Snapp wrote:
    Greetings All,
    First time post here so bear with me. I do have Carl Weimer's permission to post with one population clarification. I asked Carl to comment on the KGMI rant by Gene Knutson and Doug Starcher. As I recall their main pitch was that the City did five years worth of work on the UGA issue including a population increase projection study and how dare the County come to a different conclusion without doing any study or research of their own. I put that question to Carl figuring, why not go to the horses mouth, so to speak. Here is his response verbatim:

    Stan,
    The charge that the City did the analysis and the County didn't is true. The County looked at the analysis that the City did, could find no flaws with it, so instead of wasting taxpayer money to do another analysis that would probably come out with basically the same numbers we used your analysis.
    Hopefully we don't get to the point that every time either of us does any type of analysis (traffic counts, water testing, ambulance runs, etc) the other then does the same analysis because we don't trust each other.

    The difference was not in the analysis the City did, (we accepted your numbers as accurate), the difference was in the assumptions (the wiggle
    room) that were used by your planners to make the numbers come to various conclusions. The ones that you have probably heard about are the assumptions that lead to such a big safety factor, the assumption that the current UGAs would develop at the minimum densities possible, etc. For example if you change the assumption about current UGA build out from the minimum density numbers the City used to a medium number that I proposed, the difference between our proposals nearly disappears. Both numbers, minimum and medium, are from the City's analysis - I just think the medium one is more realistic, and what we should be shooting for in our precious UGAs.

    The one other thing that kept striking me listening to Gene and Doug this morning was how they kept saying the County was trying to force 30,000+ people into the neighborhoods. If my memory serves me correctly the City's proposal put 26,000 in existing neighborhoods, while the County's put 29,000. So really the difference between what the County proposed for existing neighborhoods compared to what the City proposed is only 3000, not 30,000. Those are very round numbers from memory, but they at least show the general scale. Carl

    Okay, that's his response. Stan


    Since nobody else is, I'd like to respond to this:

    Carl:
    Stan,
    The charge that the City did the analysis and the County didn't is true. The County looked at the analysis that the City did, could find no flaws with it, so instead of wasting taxpayer money to do another analysis that would probably come out with basically the same numbers we used your analysis.
    Hopefully we don't get to the point that every time either of us does any type of analysis (traffic counts, water testing, ambulance runs, etc) the other then does the same analysis because we don't trust each other.

    The difference was not in the analysis the City did, (we accepted your numbers as accurate), the difference was in the assumptions (the wiggle room) that were used by your planners to make the numbers come to various conclusions. The ones that you have probably heard about are the assumptions that lead to such a big safety factor, the assumption that the current UGAs would develop at the minimum densities possible, etc. For example if you change the assumption about current UGA build out from the minimum density numbers the City used to a medium number that I proposed, the difference between our proposals nearly disappears. Both numbers, minimum and medium, are from the City's analysis - I just think the medium one is more realistic, and what we should be shooting for in our precious UGAs.


    ME:
    Bellingham does not have a ‘big safety factor’ as compared to what the County has allowed to be adopted in the other cities of the County. The Bellingham safety factor is 17.0% Here is what safety factor has been adopted within a year or so by ‘rest of County’.
    Everson – 50%
    Blaine – “triple the projected demand”, otherwise known as 300%
    Ferndale – 25%
    Lynden – 12.7%
    Nooksack – 25%
    Sumas – 25%
    Birch Bay – 25%
    Although Lynden has a very small excess land supply, they identify it as such. Whatcom County has allowed Everson to adopt and implement a 50% safety factor, most others a 25% safety factor, and used 25% in their own planning UGAs but they have a problem with Bellingham adopting 17%.

    The Bellingham numbers Carl said they “accepted as accurate” shows that the UGA has developed to 2.1 units per acre – this is not an assumption or ‘wiggle room’, just a fact. Both Bellingham and the County have assumed that every single parcel in the UGA would be developed by 2022 (no availability factor), including existing businesses like Clean Cut farms and Razore’s Christmas tree farm and assumed that the UGA would somehow develop at 6 units per acre. The minimum density the UGA can be built to is 1 unit per 5 acres due to the annexation/utility problem.


    Carl:
    The one other thing that kept striking me listening to Gene and Doug this morning was how they kept saying the County was trying to force 30,000+ people into the neighborhoods. If my memory serves me correctly the City's proposal put 26,000 in existing neighborhoods, while the County's put 29,000. So really the difference between what the County proposed for existing neighborhoods compared to what the City proposed is only 3000, not 30,000. Those are very round numbers from memory, but they at least show the general scale. Carl

    ME:
    The City’s proposal puts 19,610 people into the existing neighborhoods and fits 80% of the future B’ham population into the 2006 City Limits.
    Carl says that their proposal puts 29,000 people.

    According to the letter Tim Stewart sent to the County Council:
    Here is how Bellingham’s population increase was distributed:
    62% (19,610) are allocated to the Urban Centers and City Neighborhoods
    21% (6,776) are allocated to the existing UGA
    17% (5,215) are allocated to the 5-year Review Areas recommended for inclusion in Bellingham’s UGA

    Here is how the population allocation will be distributed (in 2006 terms) in 2022:
    80% (88,870) inside the 2006 City Limits
    15% (18,970) inside the 2006 Urban Growth Area
    5% (5,215) inside the 5-year Review Areas recommended for inclusion in Bellingham’s UGA
    Qualty Growth
    Posted: Friday, January 18, 2008 5:19:12 PM
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    Location: Whatcom County
    A little additional info, for about 3 yrs every time the Whatcom County Planning Commission met to discuss the UGA issue, the city changed it's land supply #s. That didn't give us a lot of confidence in their methodology. When they finally settled, the parks controversy started. Yes, the city won in court but I understand those #s will be changed soon to what is REALLY doable, rather than what is not doable. The land supply numbers were suspect from the beginning. The WWGMHB decision does not mean the city's plan was good, or couldn't be changed, only that, that one plan was acceptable, many other plans could also be found acceptable. To show you how bogus the city's plan is read this:
    http://www.cascadiaweekly.com/pdfs/issues/200622.pdf (or read all 3 parts)
    it has never been reputed.
    I went to almost all the UGA meetings and in every one I went to, Vega flat out lied to the people (told them they had no choice) about growth in THEIR community. Of course they had a choice, thank God we all still have some voice in our community!
    Skip to today.
    Since the county never did buy into the city's (manipulated, in my belief)land supply #s, I believe the county is NOT going to agree to the city's expansion of the UGA. So whatever the city needs to do in my humble opinion, they need to start. Pike is just trying to deal with that reality and yes the people per house is going down (I understand to 0.78/unit in zip 98225)
    The model for a "Tacoma to Lynnwood" lookalike is an ever expanding city.
    Why should a city that is 39% of the county population take 51% of the growth?
    If we want to avoid becoming "Tacoma to Lynnwood" then we should try to make the small towns their own economic center, places where the residents can work, and buy the things they need. The more we make B'ham become the "everything " to county dwellers, the sooner we become what we don't want to be.
    The best way to do this that I can find is, the reduce the population projection (which is a self foe filling prophecy anyway) for B'ham to 40%. Reassign it to, and work with, the small towns to limit the rezoning to accommodate that growth inside their downtown core where they have boarded up business now and help start an economic rejuvenation process. I call it STURP (Small Town Urban Renewal Program). When those bankers who finance taller downtown buildings see govt directing growth into our downtown areas (throughout the county) and not to the furthest fringes of the cities, they will be more willing to finance building in the city cores.
    We also need hard line boundaries and a commitment to limit growth in the rural areas to complete a plan for NOT becoming like "Tacoma to Lynnwood".

    The future happens by chance or by design.
    Flat Tire
    Posted: Monday, January 28, 2008 9:35:06 AM

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    The big meeting is tonight. The City Council will be trying to come up with some sort of resolution on this. I strongly suspect there will be no expansion of the UGAs.

    Brett Bonner is back from his week long trip to California. He is about to pop a cork this morning on the Bonner & Brooks show. Shocked He and Patti are going at it pretty good. Brett is trying to figure out the inequities in the neighborhood plans for accepting infill. The Fairhaven neighborhood is allowing for a little over 300 while neighborhoods like the Barkley District are slated for over 2,000. That's roughly 7 times as much. Brett is seeing this as money and power stopping infill. Textbook NIMBY. Some of his arguments are pretty well formed. I'll try to post links to the show once they are available.

    DJGray
    Posted: Monday, January 28, 2008 9:10:38 PM

    Rank: Administration
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    Joined: 1/11/2008
    Posts: 256
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    I'd hoped to go to this meeting, but ended up needing to help my wife with her studies. She's a grad student at the UW studying in the Master of Nursing program.



    Mark Twain wrote:

    A lie can travel halfway around the world while the truth is putting its shoes on.

  • Mark Twain


  • Baron Miller wrote:

    Grace ruins the idea that you are fully in charge.

  • Baron Miller



  • Flat Tire
    Posted: Tuesday, January 29, 2008 7:49:11 AM

    Rank: New Member
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    Joined: 12/13/2007
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    As promised, here are the links to the show:



    Segment 1

    Segment 2

    Segment 3

    Segment 4

    Segment 5


    Also, vbuys has posted a pretty interesting treatise over here.
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