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Super Delegates Options
DJGray
Posted: Friday, February 15, 2008 7:24:58 AM

Rank: Administration
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Joined: 1/11/2008
Posts: 279
Location: Bellingham, WA
I've been following the Democratic contest for the presidential nomination with some interest, and lately the heat seems to center on the Super Delegates. The Democrats have 800 Super Delegates (actually 795). These are party officials who have been around for a long time (party elites), and who ostensibly know how the "system" works, and what is best for the party. In a race as closely contested as that between Obama and Clinton, the Super Delegates could really come into play.

Consider this scenario: Let's assume Obama is leading the delegate count by 200. Now, what happens if the Super Delegates don't care for Obama for whatever reason (as is being reported right now)? What happens if 500 of the Super Delegates (olde guard) decide to cast their support for Hillary while 300 go for Obama? Hillary wins, specifically because of the Super Delegates. This is not outside the realm of possibility at all!

So, what happens? Well, here is how I see this playing out. Obama will be leading the race, but not by an insurmountable amount. The Super Delegates will not be comfortable with Obama (he has some highly vulnerable areas) and will throw their support to Hillary. Because of the swing in delegate count, Hillary will win, and the groundswell of support for Obama from the youth crowd will fall away. They will be pissed off at the perceived arrogance of the Super Delegates and will become presidential undervotes, or will not vote at all. A few, very few, might vote for McCain, but because of the undervote, the result will be a win for McCain, and from my other posts, you know I'm not real excited about that either.

I don't really have a dog in this race, but I do find this whole discussion of the Super Delegates fascinating.

Another interesting twist is the new fight over whether or not to count the Michigan and Florida delegates. The rules committee for the Democrats has disallowed this since the states chose to move their primary elections up. With Hillary winning those counts (Obama wasn't even on the Michigan ballot), naturally, she wants those states to be counted. Obama is wanting to stick with the original ruling of the party.

So, here is what this looks like today: Hillary wants to change the rules on Michigan and Florida, but keep the practice of the Super Delegates. Obama wants to keep the rules on Michigan and Florida, but change the practice of the Super Delegates. It's complicated, but fascinating!

Mark Twain wrote:

A lie can travel halfway around the world while the truth is putting its shoes on.

  • Mark Twain


  • Baron Miller wrote:

    Grace ruins the idea that you are fully in charge.

  • Baron Miller



  • Brat
    Posted: Friday, February 15, 2008 10:46:35 AM

    Rank: New Member
    Groups: Member

    Joined: 2/1/2008
    Posts: 36
    Location: Bellingham
    Great discussion topic and I'm glad it is now getting the coverage in the media. I truly believe the super delegates will end up deciding the party's representative...and I believe it will be Clinton.

    I love the excitment this election season has produced, but I think we need to be very careful. If you take away the fact that Obama is a truly great orator...what's left? A young energetic african american man with little experience. In fact, at the State level, this man could not even cast a yea or nay vote on tough issues. He voted "present", which is actually an abstention. Abstentions should only be used in times of a conflict of interest which, to my knowledge, there were none. That makes me very uncomfortable. He loves to drive home that he was always against the war in Iraq, but I wonder--if he were actually at the US level at the time of the vote, what would he have voted? My guess is he would have voted the same as Clinton. But, with him not being there, he now has the option of saying whatever he feels the voters wants to hear. He talks a great deal about change, but I must be unintelligent because I don't hear the substance of that change. We must remember we are voting on the person to run our Country. This is not a local mayoral race where it might be fun to shake things up a bit and elect a relative unknown.

    I realize many feel Senator Clinton is a very polarizing person, however, if you look at all she's done, what she knows, her foreign relations, etc., you have to respect her. I know many that can't stand her, but respect and admire all she's accomplished and have and will continue to vote for her. I believe she has what we need right now. She absolutely can hit the ground running with a phone in her hand calling out to leaders and powers that be of other countries and start working now! I think she will take a strong stand on border issues and I believe she will start with securing the borders. Her healthcare proposal looks good and reasonable. It's not a give everything away. It is make it affordable. I believe she'll not forget to hit the pharmacuetical companies that have driven up prices on healthcare for years, although no one discusses that...it's always the insurers that are blamed. She knows the ropes, the layout, the people and more importantly, the job at hand.

    I know there are a good many republicans hoping she'll get the nomination because they feel McCain can beat her, but consider this...not everyone that exercises their vote does so in the primaries for many reasons. In many states independents cannot take part in the primaries and a good deal of independents lean more left than right. There are those instances as well where ballots aren't counted toward the delegates, it is the caucus outcome that determines it and a lot of voters, even though numbers were very high in Washington for our caucus, did not participate for myriad reasons. Additionally, McCain isn't exactly the best republican so there may be republicans that cross the party line. One other thought...I've heard many a rumble from conservative democrats (and yes they exist) that if Obama gets the nomination they may need to hold their nose and vote McCain.

    None of anything I've said is earth shattering or "breaking news" and you can bet that all of this has run through the minds of the super delegates...at least the ones that have been around for a while. I'm all for youth involvement in the process. They have to start somewhere getting involved in the political arena and determining their futures, but this time it scares me a bit. It's like what I always told my step daughter about decisions in her life...before you make one, keep in mind the unintentional or worse, the irreversible consequences.
    Flat Tire
    Posted: Friday, February 15, 2008 11:45:14 AM

    Rank: New Member
    Groups: Member , Moderator

    Joined: 12/13/2007
    Posts: 108
    Location: Bellingham
    Brat wrote:
    I love the excitment this election season has produced,


    This is certainly true on the Democrat side, but not so much with the Republicans.

    Brat wrote:
    If you take away the fact that Obama is a truly great orator...what's left?


    Very true, and this is starting to be pointed out in the media.

    Brat wrote:
    I realize many feel Senator Clinton is a very polarizing person, however, if you look at all she's done, what she knows, her foreign relations, etc., you have to respect her.


    Well, I'm not so sure there is much more in her portfolio than in Obama's. The one thing she really went after (Universal Healthcare) went down in flames. She has stated over and over on the campaign trail that she has "eight years of experience in the White House." Well, okay... but that is like saying Melinda Gates is qualified to be a software developer, because she has been married to Bill Gates for X number of years. But we know this to be untrue.

    I'm open to being shown otherwise on this, but I believe we have to look at her record as a Senator from NY, and I don't know that there is a whole lot there.



    Brat wrote:
    She knows the ropes, the layout, the people and more importantly, the job at hand.


    She knows how to win a fight or a race. When you find yourself on the other side of a battle with her, you know better than to never let down your guard. But I haven't seen anything from her as a legislator that has been real profound.

    Brat wrote:
    Additionally, McCain isn't exactly the best republican so there may be republicans that cross the party line.


    Touche' on that one. Ann Coulter has said that she will campaign for Hillary if McCain gets the Republican nod. That would be a mind-blower to watch!

    Brat wrote:
    I'm all for youth involvement in the process. They have to start somewhere getting involved in the political arena and determining their futures, but this time it scares me a bit.


    I'm a Republican, but I've been very impressed with Obama's ability to energize the Democratic youth. I've not seen anything like it for many years, and I'm pushing 50.

    Brat wrote:
    It's like what I always told my step daughter about decisions in her life...before you make one, keep in mind the unintentional or worse, the irreversible consequences.


    Great advice! Good for you.
    Poindexter Prometheus Parkenfarker
    Posted: Wednesday, February 20, 2008 3:56:47 PM

    Rank: New Member
    Groups: Member

    Joined: 1/9/2008
    Posts: 139
    Location: Zeta Reticuli
    Holy Smokes!!!
    I thought that I was on to some supersecret information that some braggart had let me onto.
    You've heard this too?
    I wonder if Citizen Steve will enlighten us?

    You better laugh at yourself,
    Everyone else is.

    www.parkenfarkergroup.blogspot.com
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